Research on hiring markets, platform labor, and creative industries consistently shows the same pattern.
Once baseline competence is reached, outcomes are dominated by constraints, not effort.
Posting, commenting, and outreach increase probability. They do not guarantee outcomes.
Whether something works depends on factors outside your control:
- timing and budget cycles
- market saturation
- who sees the work
- whether they are hiring
- whether they are risk tolerant
- whether your skills match a current need rather than a general one
Two people can do the same thing with the same level of effort and get opposite results.
Example.
Two junior designers post consistently for months. One gets hired because a team loses someone mid-project and needs coverage immediately. The other hears nothing because the company freezes hiring the same week.
Same effort. Different outcome.
That difference is not character. It is timing.
Treating outcomes as proof of effort is how hustle culture moralizes luck.